* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 08/30/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 32 29 27 25 25 25 24 24 26 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 32 29 27 25 25 25 24 24 26 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 34 31 29 28 27 26 24 23 21 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 3 4 3 2 10 8 15 8 10 6 SHEAR DIR 152 164 172 220 253 297 72 156 133 134 98 152 227 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 139 138 136 136 134 133 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 47 45 42 42 43 43 47 48 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 46 39 38 50 45 46 28 21 3 27 14 200 MB DIV 2 8 1 7 1 -1 16 -7 8 10 17 26 10 LAND (KM) 1480 1422 1363 1313 1263 1162 1061 977 930 899 869 846 823 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 121.6 121.2 120.9 120.6 120.0 119.4 118.9 118.7 118.5 118.3 118.1 118.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 14 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. -15. -16. -16. -14. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY