* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/31/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 60 66 70 73 77 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 60 66 70 73 77 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 57 64 70 76 80 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 9 7 9 11 19 15 12 14 6 14 SHEAR DIR 172 260 357 19 41 24 67 60 95 103 135 170 204 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 132 133 134 137 139 141 143 144 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 128 128 128 127 128 129 131 133 135 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 53 56 52 55 54 51 45 45 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 22 6 1 2 -7 9 0 14 0 9 1 0 200 MB DIV 49 34 38 38 32 44 38 21 24 3 -29 -26 -25 LAND (KM) 963 961 963 980 1008 880 813 745 706 677 522 360 198 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.5 50.6 51.6 52.6 54.3 55.6 56.9 58.1 59.5 60.9 62.4 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 34 38 42 53 61 64 64 64 69 70 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 41. 45. 48. 52. 53. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY