* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/31/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 126 127 127 122 110 98 85 69 54 39 27 V (KT) LAND 125 126 126 127 127 122 110 69 48 37 32 26 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 124 122 118 115 106 97 63 45 35 31 30 24 SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 4 3 5 15 15 26 29 32 41 35 SHEAR DIR 160 232 258 276 258 196 250 268 272 286 291 298 288 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.8 27.1 27.4 26.6 25.1 22.4 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 163 158 150 142 135 137 126 110 83 60 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 9 8 5 6 3 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 66 65 62 61 58 49 44 45 42 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 6 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 17 17 9 -1 19 9 3 5 2 20 10 28 200 MB DIV 85 39 33 32 28 37 17 35 1 -22 -25 -12 -3 LAND (KM) 368 377 389 388 323 105 17 -1 -39 -31 -29 17 53 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.1 20.0 22.2 24.2 26.0 27.6 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.1 108.6 109.2 109.7 110.7 111.4 112.2 112.9 113.4 113.7 114.5 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 11 11 10 9 7 3 2 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 48 43 36 14 9 0 59 47 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -17. -27. -35. -43. -51. -59. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -15. -27. -40. -56. -71. -85. -98. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY