* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 09/01/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 31 36 44 55 64 73 76 79 80 81 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 31 36 44 55 64 73 76 79 80 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 35 44 55 67 79 87 92 90 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 5 6 2 3 3 8 4 7 6 16 17 SHEAR DIR 185 237 20 37 66 17 55 46 81 6 292 318 286 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 151 150 150 149 149 150 150 150 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 143 143 142 139 138 138 138 138 139 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 57 52 52 53 51 52 51 51 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 12 21 23 14 21 9 22 11 26 17 36 200 MB DIV 65 61 34 60 38 11 19 14 -2 -13 0 -18 -9 LAND (KM) 784 727 683 664 657 645 589 481 370 243 116 44 77 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 54.9 55.8 56.7 57.4 58.1 59.4 60.4 61.4 62.4 63.6 64.8 66.3 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 59 62 70 73 70 65 64 58 72 68 61 61 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 11. 19. 30. 39. 48. 51. 54. 55. 56. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY