* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/01/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 136 135 132 128 114 105 94 85 74 67 57 54 V (KT) LAND 135 136 135 132 128 101 66 54 45 34 26 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 135 134 129 124 118 105 63 46 54 55 47 37 31 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 13 10 17 19 33 32 39 27 SHEAR DIR 201 262 253 213 197 278 252 285 286 305 286 281 293 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.5 29.3 29.7 30.4 30.8 30.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 157 154 151 145 148 155 159 167 169 166 155 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 9 5 6 3 7 3 7 2 7 700-500 MB RH 64 67 70 67 66 65 61 56 54 52 51 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 12 9 8 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 8 28 29 10 10 3 7 1 37 65 64 200 MB DIV 52 36 29 29 41 4 43 -19 -14 -16 -13 -6 -23 LAND (KM) 411 344 247 156 116 -4 -29 3 30 47 -11 -17 -43 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.7 24.7 26.4 27.5 28.2 29.0 30.2 30.9 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.4 110.8 111.2 111.8 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.8 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 7 5 4 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 36 32 18 8 2 44 14 25 22 62 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -27. -35. -41. -47. -50. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -7. -21. -30. -41. -50. -61. -68. -78. -81. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY