* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/01/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 134 130 124 111 96 87 78 72 64 55 49 V (KT) LAND 135 135 134 130 124 102 73 50 45 39 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 135 132 127 121 115 85 71 49 50 50 42 34 29 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 8 15 9 18 21 27 31 32 41 30 SHEAR DIR 261 242 194 207 247 276 266 287 297 304 299 289 283 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.7 28.0 28.7 29.9 30.6 30.8 30.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 155 152 149 140 142 149 162 169 169 163 138 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 9 10 8 6 5 6 4 6 3 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 71 69 69 66 65 58 55 52 49 46 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 13 10 10 8 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 22 19 9 0 -3 -12 14 4 54 40 74 200 MB DIV 48 30 32 15 -1 16 20 -32 -12 -27 -5 9 31 LAND (KM) 345 256 181 120 79 0 -32 -15 38 23 -2 -37 -115 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.4 23.4 25.3 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.3 31.1 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.3 110.7 111.1 111.4 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.7 112.8 112.9 112.6 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 24 5 12 0 32 6 6 96 86 112 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -19. -30. -38. -44. -49. -52. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -5. -11. -24. -39. -48. -57. -63. -71. -80. -86. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY