* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 09/01/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 23 19 17 17 17 18 17 18 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 23 19 17 17 17 18 17 18 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 24 22 20 19 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 1 5 10 11 6 15 11 14 6 9 3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 347 174 168 182 195 132 137 123 126 133 167 223 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 125 123 124 125 125 124 120 117 113 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 38 38 36 38 38 42 45 44 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 10 8 6 -5 -8 18 25 39 33 11 N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -17 -20 -13 -5 -14 1 2 -15 -9 4 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 1238 1223 1209 1194 1180 1187 1194 1212 1243 1293 1293 1251 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 20.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.7 121.7 121.6 121.6 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.8 122.4 123.3 123.8 124.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 4 4 3 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY