* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 60 64 69 74 75 74 71 67 62 59 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 60 64 69 74 75 74 71 67 62 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 61 64 69 73 76 79 79 76 72 67 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 5 5 8 5 14 14 23 22 29 19 SHEAR DIR 248 231 235 260 189 254 291 291 308 287 277 271 303 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 149 149 148 146 145 145 146 147 146 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 140 140 138 135 131 130 133 137 134 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 51 52 47 45 46 49 48 51 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 20 14 14 9 12 7 12 -5 -19 -35 -41 200 MB DIV 51 36 29 50 49 26 41 -1 -7 -7 12 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 812 798 744 656 569 407 299 237 216 288 282 377 457 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 19.0 19.6 19.9 20.3 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.9 58.7 59.5 60.3 61.9 63.2 64.2 65.2 66.9 69.4 71.1 72.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 7 11 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 75 79 72 70 57 56 55 62 59 46 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 30. 29. 26. 22. 17. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/01/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY