* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/02/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 66 69 71 72 70 67 62 57 53 51 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 66 69 71 72 70 67 62 57 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 61 65 68 70 72 71 70 68 64 59 57 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 10 13 13 14 19 21 27 27 21 21 SHEAR DIR 251 256 244 241 240 278 268 284 268 282 257 291 304 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 148 148 147 146 145 145 145 148 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 140 140 138 136 135 131 131 133 134 129 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 50 52 49 50 46 47 48 48 48 49 50 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 4 10 7 -6 1 -12 -6 -19 -28 -43 -57 200 MB DIV 22 22 48 73 24 2 0 5 7 9 4 9 -22 LAND (KM) 825 790 687 585 486 338 214 233 311 323 425 519 590 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.3 22.2 23.6 24.5 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 58.3 59.2 60.2 61.1 62.7 64.7 66.0 66.9 68.3 70.5 71.7 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 9 9 9 9 6 6 10 10 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 66 72 80 72 68 60 56 58 61 63 46 46 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 20. 17. 12. 7. 3. 1. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY