* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/02/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 64 67 71 72 72 69 66 61 58 56 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 64 67 71 72 72 69 66 61 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 59 62 68 72 73 72 67 62 56 53 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 7 8 10 18 19 28 21 29 23 32 SHEAR DIR 249 233 98 258 274 301 307 303 291 296 286 298 321 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 149 149 149 148 146 144 144 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 140 139 138 137 136 133 129 128 132 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 47 45 47 47 47 46 53 52 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 14 12 11 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 11 14 -4 6 0 10 -1 2 -29 -35 -57 200 MB DIV 24 57 76 32 11 18 6 15 5 25 8 -13 1 LAND (KM) 721 684 611 517 424 263 142 133 233 232 269 366 479 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.1 23.1 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.4 60.0 60.9 61.7 63.2 64.5 65.9 67.3 68.6 69.5 70.9 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 75 77 80 78 74 62 58 62 64 61 59 47 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 21. 22. 22. 19. 16. 11. 8. 6. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY