* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/02/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 81 77 72 62 50 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 83 79 60 49 36 30 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 83 79 62 50 36 30 28 26 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 21 24 20 31 28 33 33 32 24 22 SHEAR DIR 276 279 274 271 288 290 303 308 305 297 291 294 314 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 25.4 23.9 22.6 21.7 21.1 20.4 20.0 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 134 133 113 97 83 74 68 60 57 57 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 4 4 6 3 6 2 6 3 6 3 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 60 62 57 53 50 49 49 48 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -13 -17 -20 -17 -12 -13 -14 3 9 17 25 200 MB DIV 15 24 27 10 -8 -20 -17 -23 -8 -9 -15 -24 -5 LAND (KM) 1 15 10 -28 -66 -53 -22 -2 16 7 3 9 59 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.3 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.3 112.5 112.8 113.0 113.5 113.8 114.1 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 49 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -27. -37. -45. -51. -57. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -23. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -28. -40. -54. -67. -78. -91. -96.-104. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY