* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/03/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 44 46 46 46 45 46 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 37 42 45 44 45 43 44 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 35 44 44 43 41 40 39 41 44 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 15 20 19 23 33 22 20 23 11 12 14 SHEAR DIR 295 293 287 293 299 281 298 269 277 269 322 308 336 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 149 148 146 144 144 144 145 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 141 139 136 133 130 129 128 129 132 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 13 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 48 45 46 49 44 50 53 56 59 62 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 7 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 10 3 0 -2 3 6 2 -19 -25 -31 -38 -40 200 MB DIV 39 36 18 17 13 21 14 13 17 -11 -5 -5 12 LAND (KM) 331 242 154 63 -18 73 78 110 177 249 304 342 436 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.9 23.8 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 63.8 64.5 65.3 66.0 67.5 68.8 69.9 71.0 72.1 73.2 74.2 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 80 81 73 69 28 64 64 57 59 25 56 72 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 10. 11. 12. 15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY