* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/03/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 33 35 38 41 46 47 52 54 62 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 33 34 35 38 43 43 48 50 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 29 26 30 29 28 28 28 30 33 SHEAR (KT) 5 15 18 16 12 23 24 24 16 19 10 6 8 SHEAR DIR 240 270 293 301 270 279 279 261 235 256 224 255 350 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 148 146 144 144 144 146 149 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 141 140 137 134 131 129 129 131 133 136 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 46 49 48 47 45 47 51 53 54 57 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 9 10 11 14 13 15 12 17 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 12 12 30 10 25 5 8 -3 6 12 28 200 MB DIV 41 18 4 9 36 3 24 14 46 18 -6 10 13 LAND (KM) 201 118 66 12 57 2 17 88 155 192 214 253 307 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.5 66.3 67.1 67.8 69.1 70.4 71.5 72.5 73.7 75.2 76.4 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 81 68 66 67 65 0 9 60 56 58 68 69 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 22. 24. 32. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY