* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/04/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 26 26 26 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 26 26 29 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 27 27 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 17 23 26 19 27 22 24 13 11 6 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 301 295 298 312 313 296 287 283 273 272 222 268 N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.1 29.3 28.5 27.6 25.3 24.0 22.6 22.0 22.1 20.9 20.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 154 146 137 113 99 85 80 81 68 62 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 4 5 6 4 6 3 5 1 3 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 52 50 50 44 42 37 34 29 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -14 -16 -21 -23 -32 -29 -23 -20 5 25 38 N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -11 -19 -26 -29 -8 -18 -7 -37 -16 -15 -11 N/A LAND (KM) 50 27 3 -28 -54 11 80 129 173 266 188 36 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.9 25.8 26.3 27.6 27.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.7 113.3 113.7 114.5 115.1 117.1 116.9 115.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 29 12 38 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -12. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -15. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/04/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/04/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY