* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/04/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 29 32 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 26 26 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 28 27 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 23 26 21 24 29 29 30 20 11 4 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 294 293 311 313 306 293 270 265 254 260 281 283 N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.2 27.0 24.3 22.2 21.2 21.6 20.4 20.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 162 158 153 131 103 81 73 76 62 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 5 6 5 5 3 1 0 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 52 50 49 46 42 39 31 31 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -11 -2 -5 -29 -15 -19 6 18 36 26 N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -21 -14 -31 -15 -3 -14 9 -21 -8 -9 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 53 42 32 10 -11 -20 34 84 136 286 266 183 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6 27.1 28.3 28.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.8 111.8 112.0 112.1 112.8 113.6 114.5 115.5 117.8 117.9 116.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 8 7 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 36 30 13 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 12. 10. 8. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -17. -17. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -3. -4. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. -25. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/04/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/04/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY