* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 44 53 55 55 54 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 44 53 55 55 54 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 25 30 36 42 45 42 39 36 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 8 5 8 5 5 10 19 18 10 11 SHEAR DIR 59 61 72 92 89 74 44 145 261 261 259 230 256 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 150 150 149 146 141 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 73 74 70 72 70 66 62 57 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 42 43 41 46 52 47 59 27 23 35 31 200 MB DIV 15 16 20 -4 -15 18 41 64 15 11 24 27 33 LAND (KM) 1268 1286 1303 1334 1371 1450 1525 1573 1675 1790 1882 1952 2034 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.0 115.9 116.8 117.6 119.3 121.0 122.5 124.2 125.9 127.3 128.5 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 45 49 26 45 37 40 25 11 18 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 24. 33. 35. 35. 34. 36. 36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY