* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/06/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 52 57 62 64 64 65 64 58 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 45 52 57 62 64 64 65 64 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 40 43 43 42 41 41 40 39 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 5 4 2 5 14 12 7 14 13 16 12 SHEAR DIR 36 30 12 50 339 272 247 288 270 268 258 248 263 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 146 143 139 135 136 136 133 131 128 125 119 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 66 67 64 67 61 58 54 51 54 53 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 26 25 28 30 32 38 53 77 83 76 52 200 MB DIV 20 17 -2 23 17 -24 -25 2 18 13 11 11 25 LAND (KM) 1486 1525 1567 1610 1657 1743 1842 1951 2090 2221 2154 2061 2005 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.4 123.2 124.1 124.9 126.4 128.1 129.7 131.5 133.2 134.5 135.3 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 35 14 10 9 10 11 24 19 16 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 27. 32. 37. 39. 39. 40. 39. 33. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/06/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/06/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY