* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 09/07/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 54 65 73 78 81 78 77 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 54 65 73 78 81 78 77 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 47 55 61 61 59 56 54 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 12 10 4 3 8 15 11 15 12 19 SHEAR DIR 70 84 96 96 89 69 351 230 232 208 219 236 237 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 133 132 132 131 129 129 124 120 117 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 135 133 131 132 131 128 125 117 110 106 106 104 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 60 59 52 59 58 59 60 57 54 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 23 21 20 22 25 26 27 27 25 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 75 67 79 86 83 70 47 47 45 47 54 78 82 200 MB DIV 60 59 90 85 33 23 20 79 92 43 13 15 34 LAND (KM) 302 448 583 718 859 1169 1475 1772 1985 2066 2126 2069 1951 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 19.6 21.1 22.5 23.9 25.3 28.3 31.2 34.0 36.0 37.2 37.3 36.6 35.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 15 14 12 9 6 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 5 8 7 8 7 8 5 6 6 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 29. 40. 48. 53. 56. 53. 52. 48. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 09/07/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)