* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/07/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 40 41 38 35 29 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 40 41 38 35 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 25 24 23 21 20 19 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 9 9 11 12 14 11 15 15 23 24 18 15 SHEAR DIR 344 322 316 285 266 290 261 251 231 236 243 255 243 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 136 136 136 133 128 123 120 116 110 101 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 62 65 60 60 57 53 55 52 52 48 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 15 16 19 20 19 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 9 17 23 19 34 60 74 69 60 36 20 200 MB DIV 16 5 -3 -13 -5 3 27 26 6 22 21 2 -3 LAND (KM) 1669 1717 1768 1802 1836 1927 2011 2094 2160 2154 2052 1987 2008 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.6 20.9 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.5 126.3 127.1 127.8 129.3 130.8 132.1 133.3 134.3 135.2 135.8 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 12 16 10 10 14 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 9. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 13. 10. 4. 1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/07/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/07/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY