* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072009 09/07/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 55 63 63 59 58 54 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 55 63 63 59 58 54 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 37 42 48 52 52 51 49 47 44 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 3 1 7 5 7 9 19 13 19 28 SHEAR DIR 75 99 126 309 24 284 212 246 217 245 233 248 262 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 133 133 132 128 121 116 115 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 131 131 129 127 122 112 105 103 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -52.3 -51.1 -51.8 -50.5 -51.5 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 59 65 60 62 62 60 59 52 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 18 19 22 18 22 20 26 25 22 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 76 60 52 22 9 15 19 41 44 71 64 200 MB DIV 99 38 16 32 45 21 76 17 35 12 46 -9 16 LAND (KM) 740 866 993 1100 1210 1418 1603 1739 1836 1894 1913 1897 1865 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.5 14.3 15.7 17.3 18.4 19.0 20.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.5 30.6 32.4 33.7 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.2 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 9 7 8 8 7 4 3 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. 0. -1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 25. 33. 33. 29. 28. 24. 18. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 SEVEN 09/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)