* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/07/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 57 58 60 59 52 44 33 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 57 58 60 59 52 44 33 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 53 54 54 52 49 47 43 39 33 28 23 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 11 11 8 12 21 21 25 28 32 26 SHEAR DIR 296 290 287 286 260 245 218 186 216 215 207 213 227 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.8 25.6 24.8 24.0 23.5 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 140 140 140 140 137 131 118 110 101 95 92 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 7 5 6 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 57 55 57 55 56 53 62 60 54 51 46 40 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 18 21 22 20 19 15 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 32 28 35 56 66 72 62 52 20 9 -13 200 MB DIV 1 12 6 15 10 36 38 17 7 7 13 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1830 1857 1883 1908 1934 1965 1970 1968 1975 1977 1909 1853 1826 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.4 17.1 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.3 127.9 128.4 128.9 129.6 130.3 131.1 132.1 132.9 133.7 134.1 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 7 8 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 23 27 25 15 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 9. 7. 2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 16. 14. 7. -1. -12. -22. -31. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/07/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY