* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/09/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 59 59 54 49 37 25 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 59 59 54 49 37 25 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 56 55 51 45 38 30 24 19 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 8 10 21 13 21 24 23 29 31 19 SHEAR DIR 203 228 186 182 185 224 216 207 223 231 236 238 231 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.8 25.7 24.6 23.7 23.1 23.0 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 138 131 119 108 98 90 88 85 81 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -50.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 58 57 61 61 55 56 50 43 38 34 31 29 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 19 19 17 18 15 12 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 53 59 56 59 44 15 -14 -30 -46 -55 -45 200 MB DIV 41 50 36 37 69 10 25 3 -7 11 6 5 -3 LAND (KM) 1945 1947 1950 1930 1913 1885 1880 1846 1755 1681 1661 1592 1501 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.5 17.1 18.2 19.5 21.1 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.6 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 128.6 128.9 129.3 129.6 130.2 131.1 131.7 132.0 132.2 132.4 132.1 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 7 7 8 8 6 4 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 35 13 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. -1. -6. -18. -30. -40. -49. -59. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY