* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 57 54 43 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 57 54 43 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 54 52 46 39 33 27 23 19 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 17 18 7 16 14 17 19 21 19 13 SHEAR DIR 203 163 171 197 214 223 217 209 229 232 246 239 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 25.7 24.7 24.1 23.6 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 134 129 119 108 101 96 92 89 87 81 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 64 59 59 56 50 43 38 36 31 27 26 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 19 18 18 14 13 11 8 6 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 47 59 62 75 63 43 12 -16 -21 -40 -37 -29 -55 200 MB DIV 54 52 80 55 19 32 1 -1 0 -9 -10 -27 -2 LAND (KM) 1896 1880 1866 1847 1831 1815 1828 1811 1759 1712 1677 1611 1534 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.7 20.9 21.9 22.7 23.4 23.9 24.7 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.8 129.1 129.5 129.8 130.5 131.4 131.9 132.2 132.4 132.5 132.5 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -12. -22. -31. -41. -50. -55. -59. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED