* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 89 87 82 70 58 46 37 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 91 89 87 82 70 58 46 37 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 89 84 79 74 67 60 53 47 42 37 31 26 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 14 12 23 24 22 26 30 40 44 46 SHEAR DIR 235 223 192 211 200 209 213 218 209 214 221 233 242 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 121 119 116 116 115 114 114 114 114 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 115 111 108 104 103 103 102 103 102 102 102 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 62 59 53 46 40 39 37 39 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 18 21 23 21 19 20 18 16 16 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 2 2 11 16 41 52 51 50 36 49 45 200 MB DIV 50 47 76 47 53 -13 -9 -12 0 41 9 25 19 LAND (KM) 1718 1760 1806 1825 1847 1855 1812 1747 1713 1754 1874 2003 2128 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.8 21.9 22.9 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 33.9 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.1 33.6 33.4 33.9 35.1 36.4 37.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 4 4 2 1 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -26. -32. -38. -40. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -11. -11. -12. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -13. -25. -37. -49. -58. -66. -75. -83. -89. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)