* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 35 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 35 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 36 32 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 26 26 23 26 25 27 19 15 14 19 20 17 SHEAR DIR 190 199 214 212 220 241 261 279 277 273 253 263 241 SST (C) 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 109 106 104 101 100 99 99 99 96 94 91 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 42 38 35 33 29 27 26 22 22 20 22 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 11 11 9 8 6 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 26 5 5 -14 -32 -39 -45 -66 -92 -103 -109 200 MB DIV 19 -13 -17 -7 -12 -6 -41 -19 -23 -9 -29 -10 -11 LAND (KM) 1824 1827 1834 1850 1868 1860 1882 1887 1891 1881 1845 1817 1775 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.0 131.4 131.8 132.1 132.4 132.9 133.1 133.3 133.4 133.5 133.7 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -13. -14. -18. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -24. -30. -42. -52. -61. -64. -69. -74. -75. -72. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY