* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 27 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 26 25 26 25 25 22 16 16 19 22 19 24 SHEAR DIR 197 207 212 221 235 257 283 292 282 278 264 258 259 SST (C) 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 109 105 104 101 99 98 96 95 95 97 96 96 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 41 36 33 33 31 27 28 25 25 22 22 22 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 11 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 25 6 4 -7 -28 -39 -38 -59 -90 -89 -99 -80 200 MB DIV -10 -15 -11 -21 -2 -24 -30 -25 4 -16 -7 -4 -20 LAND (KM) 1792 1806 1822 1837 1841 1833 1839 1833 1823 1852 1887 1906 1948 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.8 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.1 131.5 131.8 132.1 132.4 132.9 133.2 133.3 133.6 134.0 134.5 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. -8. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -20. -25. -38. -48. -58. -63. -68. -73. -73. -70. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED