* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 24 25 23 24 25 19 17 18 12 16 20 17 SHEAR DIR 209 211 218 232 244 267 284 265 277 249 239 230 234 SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.0 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 106 104 103 99 98 96 94 93 93 92 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 35 33 31 30 27 25 26 23 27 24 26 25 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 6 3 -11 -16 -30 -37 -42 -69 -102 -99 -112 -96 200 MB DIV -21 -18 -11 2 -18 -43 -20 -26 0 -22 -3 -24 -4 LAND (KM) 1817 1831 1846 1870 1875 1876 1887 1875 1863 1868 1866 1864 1863 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.6 22.1 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.6 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.1 131.4 131.7 132.1 132.5 133.2 133.5 133.7 134.0 134.3 134.5 134.8 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -30. -41. -46. -52. -57. -60. -60. -57. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY