* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972009 09/14/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 50 53 52 49 47 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 50 53 52 49 47 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 38 38 38 36 35 35 SHEAR (KT) 10 3 3 7 6 9 13 16 24 15 19 20 30 SHEAR DIR 50 32 161 190 188 230 259 269 281 267 252 243 243 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 158 157 157 152 148 143 139 135 130 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 70 67 62 58 56 46 46 44 43 42 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 27 29 15 19 27 40 51 68 63 51 18 200 MB DIV 43 66 90 94 91 58 33 26 11 23 5 -12 -25 LAND (KM) 452 459 503 567 607 594 621 640 634 603 549 473 428 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.7 108.8 109.9 110.9 113.1 114.5 115.4 116.1 116.4 116.2 115.8 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 11 11 9 7 5 3 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 64 52 40 38 41 43 21 16 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 25. 28. 27. 24. 22. 21. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972009 INVEST 09/14/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 6.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972009 INVEST 09/14/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED