* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972009 09/15/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 43 50 51 54 54 57 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 37 43 50 51 54 54 57 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 37 37 36 35 34 31 SHEAR (KT) 11 5 5 2 5 5 7 18 13 21 14 30 26 SHEAR DIR 53 75 96 121 210 232 256 274 265 250 242 253 249 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 157 157 154 149 141 132 126 120 118 116 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 60 59 56 51 48 48 44 43 40 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 11 10 10 12 11 13 14 18 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 2 4 4 19 32 40 48 53 43 20 8 200 MB DIV 72 69 57 62 66 35 27 17 33 20 22 -14 -1 LAND (KM) 528 576 632 615 607 629 630 568 503 493 490 499 480 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.0 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.6 110.6 111.7 112.8 114.4 115.4 115.9 116.0 116.3 116.6 116.8 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 49 39 39 45 44 19 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 2. 5. 11. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 18. 25. 26. 29. 29. 32. 27. 24. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972009 INVEST 09/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 5.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972009 INVEST 09/15/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY