* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 55 59 63 65 69 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 55 59 63 65 69 71 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 52 56 60 65 70 74 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 11 12 21 14 22 10 17 13 21 21 SHEAR DIR 251 287 327 8 346 13 43 36 21 2 330 319 314 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 140 141 141 138 136 140 144 147 150 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 131 133 134 132 127 125 127 130 133 137 142 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 34 38 43 42 40 45 42 43 43 45 46 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 30 14 0 -21 -50 -50 -45 -32 -26 -37 -34 200 MB DIV -24 -14 4 -4 -4 -12 -22 -3 -22 -2 -17 -8 -40 LAND (KM) 1704 1622 1540 1397 1261 1003 804 675 615 543 488 457 370 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.9 51.3 52.8 54.3 57.4 60.2 62.8 65.3 67.6 69.7 72.2 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 32 34 39 36 32 34 32 49 45 45 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 39. 41. 42. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY