* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972009 09/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 34 30 26 21 15 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 34 30 26 21 15 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 24 21 19 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 12 13 24 16 29 24 33 34 41 32 SHEAR DIR 121 203 238 252 263 277 263 243 244 246 247 249 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.7 26.7 25.6 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 151 149 147 139 129 117 109 105 101 96 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 50 48 48 45 42 41 40 36 33 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 -1 7 11 28 36 32 47 28 8 -14 -25 200 MB DIV 34 26 16 21 20 9 20 16 31 -9 -23 -28 -7 LAND (KM) 549 544 545 540 537 527 439 363 329 384 394 459 563 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.2 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.0 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.7 113.2 113.5 113.8 114.2 114.3 114.6 115.1 116.0 117.1 118.4 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 43 40 36 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 5. 1. -4. -10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972009 INVEST 09/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972009 INVEST 09/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY