* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 45 46 49 47 43 37 31 23 16 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 45 46 49 47 43 37 31 23 16 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 49 50 51 50 46 41 35 30 25 21 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 8 13 19 22 23 26 35 33 34 38 SHEAR DIR 166 180 226 286 272 247 259 246 244 227 233 231 245 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 150 148 144 138 132 123 115 113 109 105 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 51 51 51 49 51 53 56 51 41 37 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -8 4 10 13 28 27 7 -4 -20 -23 -25 -32 200 MB DIV 9 -1 6 -1 7 15 25 4 -9 -17 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 534 522 510 486 465 409 381 327 286 263 245 235 234 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.6 21.3 22.1 22.9 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.6 112.6 112.8 112.9 113.1 113.3 113.6 114.2 114.4 114.4 114.5 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 39 35 30 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 7. 3. -3. -9. -17. -24. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY