* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/18/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 35 41 45 49 49 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 35 41 45 49 49 49 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 31 32 33 35 37 39 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 7 7 8 12 21 21 29 27 32 32 SHEAR DIR 41 62 39 46 84 204 215 242 229 246 243 256 256 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 163 159 153 151 152 156 161 162 161 161 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 12 14 11 12 9 13 8 13 7 11 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 64 62 67 64 61 51 48 45 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -20 -30 -36 -39 -33 -36 -30 -22 -15 -2 11 -10 200 MB DIV 38 38 15 14 27 -3 11 -6 4 -6 2 -10 1 LAND (KM) 174 175 191 164 167 209 171 24 56 104 44 35 53 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.7 20.2 21.8 23.1 24.0 24.5 24.8 24.8 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.1 104.9 105.7 106.4 107.7 108.8 109.3 109.3 109.0 108.5 108.4 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 52 49 56 51 48 32 24 23 40 46 40 36 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 22. 30. 35. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 21. 25. 29. 29. 30. 30. 30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/18/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/18/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED