* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/18/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 18 24 29 37 33 34 33 45 45 51 SHEAR DIR 231 243 247 234 232 243 240 252 254 254 249 252 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 139 133 126 120 117 116 111 110 104 96 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 42 39 37 32 31 29 26 26 27 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 54 45 37 -2 -26 -39 -36 -40 -42 -42 -24 200 MB DIV 6 -5 -5 -8 -4 -3 -14 -11 -17 -9 -1 17 16 LAND (KM) 517 526 508 497 496 547 651 717 798 851 910 978 991 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.4 22.6 22.6 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.9 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.5 114.9 115.4 115.9 117.0 118.3 119.3 120.1 121.0 121.9 123.1 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -16. -21. -27. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -28. -37. -43. -48. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/18/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/18/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY