* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/18/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 30 35 38 40 40 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 30 35 34 32 30 29 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 24 25 25 26 29 29 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 9 10 14 22 21 28 24 27 30 31 SHEAR DIR 36 7 46 64 129 203 218 227 223 240 244 263 270 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 160 156 151 149 146 147 146 145 138 133 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 13 14 13 12 11 12 9 9 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 63 65 61 60 52 48 43 40 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -31 -37 -35 -36 -39 -39 -52 -30 -45 -10 -20 1 200 MB DIV 39 -7 1 5 6 -2 -1 6 -1 3 -20 -11 -17 LAND (KM) 198 199 201 181 193 270 127 -2 -30 -11 -8 9 38 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.5 21.9 23.1 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.8 105.6 106.3 107.0 108.3 109.4 110.1 110.3 110.5 110.7 111.4 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 47 55 54 48 42 29 23 0 32 0 4 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/18/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/18/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY