* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 38 40 41 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 38 40 41 40 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 34 35 34 SHEAR (KT) 15 10 15 13 10 14 11 10 13 17 20 23 26 SHEAR DIR 219 219 191 193 203 172 211 183 199 208 219 216 243 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 136 136 134 134 134 136 134 134 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 130 130 130 126 126 126 129 126 126 124 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 58 64 60 58 64 61 62 57 59 54 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 64 51 43 23 10 6 -2 4 2 4 -13 200 MB DIV -7 -9 15 18 20 31 9 2 -6 -10 27 17 14 LAND (KM) 1624 1581 1540 1504 1470 1440 1370 1309 1228 1218 1210 1225 1221 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.9 15.5 16.0 17.0 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 39.9 40.6 41.3 42.0 43.3 44.6 45.9 47.5 49.0 50.4 51.6 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 21 22 22 22 25 31 35 45 52 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY