* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 25 28 30 32 40 39 40 41 41 40 40 N/A SHEAR DIR 231 233 244 250 238 247 252 262 248 239 237 245 N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.5 23.9 23.4 23.2 22.9 22.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 127 123 119 113 107 101 96 93 89 86 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 41 36 34 34 30 29 23 22 20 21 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 32 18 8 4 -10 -18 -37 -39 -49 -48 N/A 200 MB DIV 1 8 -5 1 -15 -5 -27 -5 -12 0 3 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 489 513 547 608 644 775 929 1083 1229 1397 1464 1463 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.3 117.0 117.8 118.6 120.5 122.5 124.4 126.2 128.2 129.6 130.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 6 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -23. -31. -36. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -22. -32. -41. -48. -54. -58. -59. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY