* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 36 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 36 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 28 27 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 2 6 15 15 24 32 34 39 43 42 49 55 SHEAR DIR 19 105 214 215 204 240 233 242 247 255 263 257 251 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.0 25.3 24.3 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.5 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 149 146 142 134 115 104 94 91 88 84 76 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 11 11 12 8 8 5 6 1 3 0 2 700-500 MB RH 62 68 63 59 57 55 41 40 33 30 28 28 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -13 -10 -20 -7 -17 -28 -47 -49 -25 -21 3 16 200 MB DIV 18 15 -8 6 19 0 1 2 -12 3 -29 -9 -2 LAND (KM) 272 312 352 261 210 236 184 228 199 204 212 211 185 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.6 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.4 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.4 109.3 110.2 111.1 112.7 113.9 114.6 115.4 116.2 116.9 117.1 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 5 5 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 29 27 24 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -9. -17. -24. -30. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 8. 3. -5. -13. -20. -27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY