* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992009 09/22/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 40 43 43 41 35 31 27 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 40 43 43 41 35 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 27 26 24 22 18 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 9 14 6 4 7 13 14 19 32 50 49 SHEAR DIR 68 88 139 177 176 226 211 259 259 257 253 266 250 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 153 151 149 144 137 133 124 114 100 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 67 70 66 65 59 59 57 57 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 9 8 9 7 7 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 4 9 19 13 25 39 54 41 32 -5 -3 200 MB DIV 34 34 37 39 48 43 28 33 6 -9 4 33 24 LAND (KM) 1077 1089 1096 1103 1117 1130 1110 1112 1120 1151 1160 1107 1059 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.8 20.0 21.5 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.9 114.7 115.5 116.3 117.5 118.4 119.4 120.4 121.4 122.6 123.5 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 48 51 39 20 20 11 8 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 20. 23. 23. 21. 15. 11. 7. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992009 INVEST 09/22/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992009 INVEST 09/22/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY