* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082009 09/26/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 36 38 42 45 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 36 38 42 45 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 33 37 43 SHEAR (KT) 13 17 12 6 17 19 27 28 28 16 8 8 2 SHEAR DIR 252 246 239 238 234 269 280 274 289 297 335 56 91 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 116 118 119 120 120 121 122 125 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 107 108 109 109 107 103 104 105 108 110 111 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -56.5 -57.1 -57.1 -57.2 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 55 59 59 60 59 53 52 51 53 50 46 40 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -50 -51 -38 -30 -45 -29 -37 -65 -99 -105 -122 -88 200 MB DIV 0 1 21 18 -6 -13 -19 -13 -57 -11 -39 -18 -50 LAND (KM) 1709 1834 1954 2035 2118 2238 2365 2412 2423 2455 2498 2534 2398 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.2 19.8 21.3 22.6 23.3 23.7 24.2 25.0 25.9 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.4 35.5 36.4 37.3 38.6 39.9 40.4 40.5 40.8 41.2 41.5 41.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 6 3 3 3 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 4 7 10 12 13 14 18 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 8. 12. 15. 20. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082009 EIGHT 09/26/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)