* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082009 09/26/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 25 27 29 34 39 46 52 58 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 25 27 29 34 39 46 52 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 20 20 20 21 24 30 39 49 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 17 15 24 24 18 1 3 2 6 20 SHEAR DIR 232 240 251 260 256 276 273 290 357 94 121 284 227 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 117 117 118 120 121 121 123 122 119 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 107 107 107 107 106 104 107 109 106 102 99 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -55.3 -55.4 -56.0 -56.5 -56.8 -56.9 -57.3 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 56 56 52 52 52 50 53 48 51 51 46 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -42 -34 -47 -44 -33 -33 -27 -59 -53 18 55 72 200 MB DIV 27 21 -13 -9 -8 -8 19 -52 0 -18 16 1 14 LAND (KM) 1921 1991 2065 2119 2176 2283 2382 2404 2347 2173 1942 1773 1666 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.6 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.0 36.8 37.4 38.0 39.1 40.1 40.3 39.7 37.9 35.4 33.4 31.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 6 10 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 4 6 8 12 13 13 9 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 21. 27. 33. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082009 EIGHT 09/26/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082009 EIGHT 09/26/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY