* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 09/29/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 30 38 44 47 44 39 33 26 19 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 30 38 44 47 44 39 33 26 19 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 30 27 23 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 7 10 11 5 8 18 20 28 38 42 48 SHEAR DIR 56 51 46 49 62 83 179 218 212 225 215 220 221 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.1 25.4 24.6 23.7 22.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 159 155 151 136 118 108 98 89 86 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 7 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 78 77 76 70 73 67 67 64 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 16 27 33 39 35 41 55 63 74 49 61 200 MB DIV 44 14 22 28 38 33 26 31 40 62 44 33 23 LAND (KM) 376 409 459 536 621 632 685 776 892 917 903 799 610 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.9 19.1 20.1 21.4 22.5 23.7 25.0 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.0 108.0 109.2 110.4 112.9 115.2 117.9 120.4 122.0 122.8 122.4 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 12 13 14 11 8 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 47 44 39 37 44 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 14. 22. 28. 30. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 24. 27. 24. 19. 13. 6. -1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 09/29/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 09/29/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED