* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 09/30/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 45 49 50 46 35 29 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 45 49 50 46 35 29 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 37 38 37 34 30 26 21 16 SHEAR (KT) 5 0 1 6 4 10 15 16 24 36 51 56 57 SHEAR DIR 27 332 149 191 174 207 179 183 204 217 219 229 223 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.3 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.4 23.9 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 154 152 150 138 122 115 109 104 101 94 91 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 74 70 70 65 62 62 61 58 53 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 7 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 51 48 41 46 87 93 116 112 95 69 79 200 MB DIV 68 34 10 18 22 28 46 74 61 17 24 3 27 LAND (KM) 593 586 578 599 646 739 887 1010 1103 1151 1093 845 351 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.3 23.3 24.8 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.5 112.6 113.8 114.9 117.4 119.8 122.1 123.8 124.7 124.7 122.8 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 6 4 8 17 23 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 37 31 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 0. -7. -15. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 24. 25. 21. 10. 4. -8. -18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 09/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 09/30/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY