* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 10/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 55 58 60 62 65 68 69 67 67 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 55 58 60 62 65 68 69 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 55 56 56 57 60 64 67 65 61 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 5 5 6 11 16 18 23 21 25 29 31 SHEAR DIR 238 247 266 265 302 319 286 284 265 240 236 220 250 SST (C) 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.1 20.8 20.6 20.9 22.0 22.7 22.4 21.7 19.2 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 88 86 83 82 80 79 80 85 91 91 89 81 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 74 73 72 70 69 70 74 79 81 81 76 72 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -56.0 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 4 1 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 61 57 56 53 55 54 56 56 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 253 235 210 184 162 123 117 132 168 201 178 130 71 200 MB DIV 30 13 11 -9 15 0 -16 0 14 47 46 50 50 LAND (KM) 1672 1673 1661 1681 1705 1813 1742 1813 1840 1535 1113 657 464 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.4 40.1 40.8 41.4 42.0 41.5 40.3 39.0 38.5 40.0 43.1 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.7 31.2 32.5 32.4 30.5 26.9 22.1 17.2 12.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 5 5 7 12 16 22 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -14. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 23. 24. 22. 22. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 10/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)