* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182009 10/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 37 34 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 37 34 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 30 27 24 22 19 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 5 13 11 9 12 8 15 15 22 27 32 53 SHEAR DIR 181 178 167 174 170 184 232 223 224 219 220 219 226 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 131 128 125 121 114 111 110 106 104 101 96 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 73 71 72 71 71 63 61 55 55 52 41 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 84 73 66 52 17 -4 -13 -9 -2 -1 22 200 MB DIV 34 21 20 11 7 13 12 30 27 20 23 8 26 LAND (KM) 841 857 876 880 887 858 755 642 527 414 322 254 210 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.7 21.9 22.7 23.3 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.3 118.7 119.0 119.2 119.4 119.0 118.3 117.3 116.6 115.8 115.4 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 3 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 4. 2. -6. -12. -18. -22. -29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182009 EIGHTEEN 10/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182009 EIGHTEEN 10/01/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY