* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP182009 10/03/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 19 21 25 26 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 26 27 34 39 41 51 44 46 56 43 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 217 190 210 223 229 242 242 250 247 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.7 25.2 26.6 28.5 30.7 29.7 29.1 28.7 27.7 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 110 115 130 151 173 164 156 151 141 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 8 6 10 4 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 42 38 35 39 35 40 43 51 54 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 26 20 17 9 30 -14 -15 -49 -96 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 28 40 20 8 -9 17 10 1 16 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 372 272 177 80 -28 -102 -368 -572 -449 -443 -160 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.3 28.6 29.5 30.0 31.1 30.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 115.0 114.1 113.2 112.3 108.8 106.4 102.8 101.1 99.8 96.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 13 14 14 12 8 11 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 42 15 13 14 13 4 7 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -16. -28. -42. -51. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -25. -31. -41. -51. -54. -54. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182009 OLAF 10/03/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182009 OLAF 10/03/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED