* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP182009 10/03/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 23 21 25 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 23 25 40 43 51 63 54 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 170 197 207 209 228 239 244 242 250 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.6 27.7 29.2 30.5 31.0 30.1 29.7 29.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 129 141 157 170 171 165 161 154 153 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 44 39 37 36 37 37 40 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 18 8 -1 27 10 32 10 -25 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 59 39 13 6 -5 8 0 18 21 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 228 131 45 -37 80 -60 -289 -406 -602 -549 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.9 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.6 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.2 113.3 112.4 111.3 110.2 108.6 106.6 105.9 104.6 102.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 11 10 10 8 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 8 53 51 19 6 12 10 12 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -11. -24. -38. -45. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -14. -14. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -28. -36. -46. -52. -55. -54. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182009 OLAF 10/03/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182009 OLAF 10/03/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY