* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP182009 10/04/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 21 19 20 25 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 20 19 26 28 35 39 40 58 45 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 193 206 220 228 237 243 243 236 248 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 28.3 29.5 30.5 31.1 31.0 30.5 30.2 29.5 29.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 147 160 170 170 170 168 166 160 157 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 10 7 9 3 7 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 43 43 41 39 41 41 45 50 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 6 -8 -4 24 18 39 26 -18 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 48 20 7 5 -10 -18 -8 15 31 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 57 -8 60 56 -83 -215 -280 -483 -575 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.7 26.6 27.4 28.8 29.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 111.8 110.7 109.8 108.9 107.6 106.7 106.6 105.1 102.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 6 5 7 10 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 20 6 46 60 12 3 0 13 12 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 30. 34. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -21. -32. -38. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -13. -15. -18. -23. -29. -33. -34. -31. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182009 OLAF 10/04/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182009 OLAF 10/04/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY