* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/07/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 37 40 43 45 48 49 51 51 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 37 37 40 43 45 48 49 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 36 36 36 39 43 46 49 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 29 25 17 21 12 8 18 10 4 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 255 256 251 230 260 21 55 55 4 261 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 152 151 151 152 150 149 147 142 138 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 147 145 143 142 137 134 130 123 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 57 56 53 46 41 27 26 24 28 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -33 -32 -37 -37 -60 -38 -39 -57 -96 -116 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 18 13 -2 -43 -2 -45 -50 -22 -14 -22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1057 1023 893 777 677 532 523 611 669 777 901 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.7 22.9 24.0 25.1 26.4 27.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.0 57.3 58.6 59.8 62.1 64.2 65.7 67.0 67.7 67.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 8 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 66 68 73 53 46 58 45 46 34 25 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY