* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 10/09/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 31 36 45 51 57 62 68 74 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 44 49 55 60 52 43 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 40 45 52 49 39 48 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 4 10 17 4 16 7 11 7 5 2 SHEAR DIR 147 210 260 198 240 344 275 300 327 315 316 333 229 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.7 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 142 138 138 149 140 145 151 154 157 170 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 156 147 141 141 153 143 149 158 161 164 174 173 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 13 12 9 13 11 12 9 12 9 11 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 57 56 58 56 56 54 54 52 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 11 28 40 40 30 24 13 48 34 37 19 200 MB DIV 5 7 17 29 16 -19 4 12 9 19 -6 12 3 LAND (KM) 164 10 33 61 144 97 36 133 311 271 -79 32 177 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.9 62.3 63.7 65.1 68.0 70.9 74.2 77.6 81.0 84.3 87.7 91.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 59 3 9 5 27 45 5 49 26 49 18 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 20. 26. 32. 37. 43. 49. 54. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 10/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 10/09/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY